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It's always interesting to take a look at the last two presidential races in Michigan to see what we might expect in November.
Clearly, in a very tight race, third-party candidates can have an impact.
In 2016, Donald Trump beat Hillary Clinton by only 10,704 votes. Clearly, if Clinton had gotten even a little chunk of the third party vote, which totaled 275,878, she could have won the state.
The 2020 election in Michigan was a very different story. Joe Biden beat Trump decisively by more than 154,000 votes. All the third party votes combined, 85,410, was far short of Biden's 154,000 vote advantage.
Here's results in the state for 2016, including third party candidates:
- Donald Trump (R) : 2,279,543 (47.3%)
- Hillary Clinton (D): 2,268,839 (47 %)
- THIRD PARTY CANDIDATES
- Gary Johnson (Libertarian): 172,136 (3.6%)
- Jill Stein (Green): 51,463 (1.1%)
- Others (Independent) 33,931 (0.7%)
- Darrell Castle (U.S. Taxpayers) 16,139 (0.3%)
- Emidio Soltysik (Natural Law): 2,209
In 2020, the race went like this:
- Joe Biden (Democrat): 2,804,040 (50.6%)
- Donald J. Trump (Republican): 2,649,852 (47.8%)
- THIRD PARTY CANDIDATES
- Jo Jorgensen (Libertarian): 60,381 (1.1%)
- Howie Hawkins (Green): 13,718 (0.2%)
- Don Blankenship (Constitution) 7,235 (0.1%)
- Rocky De La Fuente (Other): 2,986 (0.1%)
In the presidential election in 2016 in Michigan, 1,912,983 registered Democrats showed up to vote while 559,104 stayed home. That compared to 1,958,602 Republicans who voted while 357,449 stayed home, according to Target Insyght's analysis.
Third party voters accounted for 250,902 votes in 2016, compared to 85,410 in 2020. Turnout of Independent voters was more consistent. In 2016, 676,797 turned out to vote compared to 665,754 in 2020.
In the 2020 election, 2,472,087 Democrats voted in Michigan compared to 2,316,0151 Republicans.
Pollster Ed Sarpolus, executive director Target Insyght of Lansing, says "the 2016 race was the time for third party candidates like Jill Stein and all those others to shine. They had the opportunity to take advantage of the discontent with the Democrat and Republican candidates, Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump."
He sad the lower number of votes for third-party candidates in 2020 reflected a greater satisfaction among voters with the choices for president.
He said this year he doesn't see the third-party candidates having a huge impact, and predicts they'll get votes somewhere between the numbers chalked up in 2016 and 2020.
"I don't hear or see the excitement this year amongst the Independent candidates either with money or campaiging," he said.
Here's the presidential ballot in Michigan for the general election in 2024.
Kamala D. Harris (D)
Tim Walz
Donald J. Trump (R)
JD Vance
Chase Oliver (Libertarian)
Mike ter Maat
Randall Terry (U.S. Taxpayers)
Stephen E. Broden
Jill Stein (Green Party)
Rudolph Ware
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (Natural Law)
Nicole Shanahan
Joseph Kishore (No Party affiliation)
Jerry White
Cornel West (No Party affiliation)
Melina Abdullah
